![]() ![]() The discussion for the forecast warned of 1-in-100-year storm total rainfalls in some areas, along with other startling possibilities: This includes most of the area from the San Berardino Mountains to Death Valley and southward to the U.S./Mexico border. ![]() The National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center took the unusual step of issuing a “high” risk outlook for excessive rains leading to flash flooding Sunday morning through Monday morning over much of the Southern California desert region, where three to six inches of rain can be expected, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches in mountainous areas. ![]() These areas are shaded in red (□) on the map.Īreas shaded in yellow (□) and orange (□) are forecast to receive at least six months' worth of rain □ /wGJQNd0EBW- Ben Noll AugFloods and mudslides the biggest threat from Hilary Hurricane Hilary is forecast to dump more than a year's worth of rain in parts of Southern California and Nevada! These factors should cause rapid weakening, and it is expected that Hilary will be below hurricane strength when it crosses into Southern California on Sunday afternoon. Wind shear and dry air will increase as the storm heads north, and the storm will be interacting with the high terrain of the Baja Peninsula on Sunday morning. The strong winds of the hurricane’s spiral bands will stir even cooler waters below to the surface ahead of the storm, sharply reducing the sea surface temperature. This area of unusually warm water off the southern Baja Peninsula likely developed in connection with the tongue of El Niño-warmed water across the eastern tropical Pacific.Īs Hilary heads north-northwest and then north between now and landfall, the hurricane will encounter much chillier waters of 20-25 degrees Celsius (68-77☏), which lie along the central Baja coast. Ocean waters around the core of the hurricane were near 29 degrees Celsius (84☏) – about a degree cooler than on Friday – though these waters were still some 2☌ to 4☌ warmer than average for mid-August. This was likely caused by drier, most stable air encroaching from the north, driven by moderate wind shear of 10-20 knots. Satellite images Saturday afternoon showed a notable erosion of the hurricane’s northwest eyewall. Hilary has begun its anticipated weakening process. However, the impacts from Hilary – particularly its rains – are expected to be severe and locally catastrophic in the Southwest U.S., and Hilary may end up being the most expensive eastern Pacific hurricane on record for the mainland United States. If this occurs, Hilary would not officially count as California’s first landfalling tropical cyclone since 1939. will provide a well-defined steering flow for Hilary, taking the hurricane on a course roughly parallel to the coast of Baja Mexico, likely resulting in a landfall Sunday south of Tijuana, Mexico, not far from the California border. Heavy rain showers were affecting much of the southern portion of Baja Mexico, as seen on Los Cabos radar and a long radar loop saved by Brian McNoldy.Ī trough of low pressure off the California coast and a near-record-strength ridge of high pressure over the central U.S. MDT, Hilary brought sustained winds of 23 mph, gusting to 43 mph, to Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. EDT Saturday, Hilary had top sustained winds of 115 mph and a central pressure of 958 mb, and was located about 710 miles south-southeast of San Diego, headed north-northwest at 16 mph. (Image credit: NWS/San Diego via Matt Moreland.) Track forecast for HilaryĪs of 2 p.m. Meteorologists Samantha Connolly (left) and Elizabeth Adams (right) prepare the first local tropical cyclone products ever issued in the modern operations history of the National Weather Service office in San Diego. Wind gusts could be even higher across the higher terrain across Southern California, especially because Hilary will spin down more quickly near the surface than at altitude. Even though Hilary will pass well east of Los Angeles and the San Fernando Valley, the circulation around Hilary could force equally strong winds in coastal areas from an unusual “wet Santa Ana” effect. Hilary could bring sustained winds of 25-45 mph with higher gusts to San Diego and the Inland Empire of California, potentially bringing down some trees and power lines. ![]()
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